SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur Tuesday across parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, and Midwest. ...Ozarks to the Mid Mississippi Valley and Midwest... A shortwave trough will progress northeastward Tuesday from the central Plains across the mid/upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, eventually reaching Ontario by the end of the period. At the surface, a low initially over northern MO should deepen as it also develops northeastward into WI by Tuesday evening. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep eastward across portions of the Ozarks, mid MS Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes through the period. Most guidance suggests that at least low 60s surface dewpoints should be present across the mid MS Valley and Midwest ahead of the cold front and surface low. However, mid-level lapse rates should remain poor, and this will probably tend to limit instability, with up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE possible mainly due to modest diurnal heating. Strong low and mid-level winds are expected as the shortwave trough overspreads these regions. Pre-frontal forecast soundings across the warm sector show ample low-level and deep-layer shear, which should support some storm organization. A low-topped convective line capable of producing isolated strong/gusty winds and occasional damage appears to be the main threat through the early evening. But, given 0-1 km SRH of 100-200+ m2/s2 that should be present along/ahead of this line, a tornado or two may also occur. This tornado threat may be relatively maximized near the deepening surface low across far eastern IA into northern IL and southern WI Tuesday afternoon, where low-level winds could acquire a more southerly component and locally enhance 0-1 km SRH. Regardless, too much uncertainty exists regarding the degree of instability and related storm intensities to include greater severe probabilities across this area at this time. ..Gleason.. 11/09/2020
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