SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS AND NORTHWESTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out tonight over portions of
Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma.

...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the ongoing Marginal Risk area
in parts of OK and KS. Hail remains the primary threat with elevated
storms that are forecast to develop later this evening into tonight.

..Gleason.. 11/09/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020/

...Central Plains...
A strong cold front is surging southward today across the plains
states, and will extend from northwest OK into central KS later
tonight.  Low-level warm/moist advection atop the stable surface
boundary will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms behind
the front.  Forecast soundings in this zone suggest sufficient CAPE
for the risk of hail in the stronger cells.  A pronounced inversion
behind the front will diminish the risk of convective downdrafts
reaching the surface.

...South FL...
TS Eta continues to move slowly westward and away from South FL. 
Radar/model trends suggest a few showers/thunderstorms may still
affect the immediate southwest coast of FL and the Keys this
afternoon.  However, VAD profiles at KEY/TBW/MFL show low-level
SRH/shear steadily weakening.  Given the trends, have removed the 2%
tornado probabilities from this region.

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