Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models move an upper-level trough from the High Plains east-northeastward into the Northeast. A cold front is forecast to move to the southern Eastern Seaboard and central Gulf Coast. Further west, moisture return may take place in the parts of the southern Plains on Friday as a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible during the late afternoon near the moist axis across west Texas and western Oklahoma. A shortwave trough approaching the southern Plains Friday evening may support continued thunderstorm development in the overnight period. Although instability is forecast to be weak Friday and Friday night, an isolated severe threat will be possible. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... On Saturday, the models move the shortwave trough into the Ozarks. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture is forecast to advect northward into the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. This combined with strong deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat from eastern Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas Saturday afternoon and evening. On Sunday and Monday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly eastward into the western Atlantic as a large upper-level trough moves into the central states. Although there is a large amount of uncertainty, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the trough in parts of the Southeast on Sunday, and along the Eastern Seaboard on Monday. Instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the trough both days, suggesting that any severe threat will be marginal.
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