Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
On Thursday and Friday, the medium-range models move an upper-level
trough from the High Plains east-northeastward into the Northeast. A
cold front is forecast to move to the southern Eastern Seaboard and
central Gulf Coast. Further west, moisture return may take place in
the parts of the southern Plains on Friday as a surface low deepens
in the central High Plains. Thunderstorms will be possible during
the late afternoon near the moist axis across west Texas and western
Oklahoma. A shortwave trough approaching the southern Plains Friday
evening may support continued thunderstorm development in the
overnight period. Although instability is forecast to be weak Friday
and Friday night, an isolated severe threat will be possible. 

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
On Saturday, the models move the shortwave trough into the Ozarks.
Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture is forecast to advect
northward into the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. This combined
with strong deep-layer shear, may support an isolated severe threat
from eastern Oklahoma eastward into Arkansas Saturday afternoon and
evening.

On Sunday and Monday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly eastward into the western Atlantic as a large upper-level
trough moves into the central states. Although there is a large
amount of uncertainty, thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the
trough in parts of the Southeast on Sunday, and along the Eastern
Seaboard on Monday. Instability is forecast to be weak ahead of the
trough both days, suggesting that any severe threat will be
marginal.

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