SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States Wednesday.

A fast-moving shortwave trough will quickly depart the upper Great
Lakes region as a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft shifts east
across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. To the south and
east, moderate southwest midlevel winds of 40-50 kt will exist from
TX to the Mid Atlantic.

At the surface, low pressure will quickly advance northeast across
Quebec, with a cold front trailing southwest from western NY/PA to
the TN Valley. While early day warm/moist advection will occur over
the Mid Atlantic in response to the Great Lakes shortwave trough,
this regime will rapidly diminish with veering and weakening winds
at 850 mb during the day. Weak instability across the Mid Atlantic
will result in scattered thunderstorms, perhaps with gusty winds.

...Carolinas into northern GA...VA...Delmarva...
Elevated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning from VA
northward into southern PA within the aforementioned warm/moist
advection regime, with severe storms unlikely due to weak
instability and stable boundary layer. Later in the day, SBCAPE will
increase to a few hundred J/kg across the Carolinas and VA, but with
poor lapse rates aloft. Lift with the decelerating cold front near
the Piedmont at 00Z will be weak, but sufficient for scattered
afternoon thunderstorms, possibly with gusty winds. Although winds
will veer with height, flow magnitude below 700 mb will be weak.

As Tropical Storm Eta drifts north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday, the stronger wind fields and shear are expected to remain
offshore the Florida Peninsula. As such, severe storms are not
anticipated over land, though scattered daytime thunderstorms are
likely during the day within the moist, heated air mass. Even if
low-level shear increases more than forecast, model soundings
suggest convection may be low-topped due to very poor midlevel lapse

..Jewell.. 11/10/2020

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