SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United States Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving shortwave trough will quickly depart the upper Great Lakes region as a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft shifts east across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley. To the south and east, moderate southwest midlevel winds of 40-50 kt will exist from TX to the Mid Atlantic. At the surface, low pressure will quickly advance northeast across Quebec, with a cold front trailing southwest from western NY/PA to the TN Valley. While early day warm/moist advection will occur over the Mid Atlantic in response to the Great Lakes shortwave trough, this regime will rapidly diminish with veering and weakening winds at 850 mb during the day. Weak instability across the Mid Atlantic will result in scattered thunderstorms, perhaps with gusty winds. ...Carolinas into northern GA...VA...Delmarva... Elevated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning from VA northward into southern PA within the aforementioned warm/moist advection regime, with severe storms unlikely due to weak instability and stable boundary layer. Later in the day, SBCAPE will increase to a few hundred J/kg across the Carolinas and VA, but with poor lapse rates aloft. Lift with the decelerating cold front near the Piedmont at 00Z will be weak, but sufficient for scattered afternoon thunderstorms, possibly with gusty winds. Although winds will veer with height, flow magnitude below 700 mb will be weak. ...Florida... As Tropical Storm Eta drifts north across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday, the stronger wind fields and shear are expected to remain offshore the Florida Peninsula. As such, severe storms are not anticipated over land, though scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely during the day within the moist, heated air mass. Even if low-level shear increases more than forecast, model soundings suggest convection may be low-topped due to very poor midlevel lapse rates. ..Jewell.. 11/10/2020
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