SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Severe storms are unlikely across the CONUS on Thursday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An expansive belt of moderate to strong southwest flow aloft will
stretch from Baja CA into the Northeast, with a leading
low-amplitude trough moving east across the upper MS Valley and
Great Lakes. To the west, a larger upper trough will amplify along
the West Coast into Friday morning, with a significant speed max
diving southeast along the Pacific Coast.

At the surface, cooler air will push south across the Mid Atlantic
as high pressure spreads eastward across New England. A weak surface
trough will exist across the Carolinas, GA and into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico to TS Eta, and will support periodic showers and
thunderstorms during the day. 

To the west, although a cold front will approach coastal WA, OR and
northern CA late in the day, forecast soundings indicate little if
any instability will be present over land to support thunderstorms. 

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to continue slowly
northward across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, perhaps resulting in
enhanced wind shear along the west coast of FL.

...Mid Atlantic...
Large-scale ascent will be maximized early in the day Thursday with
a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet in place beneath the
right-entrance region of an upper jet. This setup will wane rather
quickly during the day, with decreased lift and veering low-level
winds. Widespread upper 60s F dewpoints and sufficient instability
may support a few diurnal storms, but most of the activity is
expected to be concentrated in the morning. Given moderate mean wind
speeds below 700 mb, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out.

Warm air aloft associated with TS Eta along with very little heating
will again yield poor-lapse rate soundings, with weak SBCAPE despite
low 70s F surface dewpoints. In addition, the bulk of the enhanced
low-level shear is likely to remain offshore, further minimizing
tornado risk.

..Jewell.. 11/10/2020

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