SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are unlikely across the CONUS on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An expansive belt of moderate to strong southwest flow aloft will stretch from Baja CA into the Northeast, with a leading low-amplitude trough moving east across the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes. To the west, a larger upper trough will amplify along the West Coast into Friday morning, with a significant speed max diving southeast along the Pacific Coast. At the surface, cooler air will push south across the Mid Atlantic as high pressure spreads eastward across New England. A weak surface trough will exist across the Carolinas, GA and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico to TS Eta, and will support periodic showers and thunderstorms during the day. To the west, although a cold front will approach coastal WA, OR and northern CA late in the day, forecast soundings indicate little if any instability will be present over land to support thunderstorms. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Eta is forecast to continue slowly northward across the eastern Gulf Of Mexico, perhaps resulting in enhanced wind shear along the west coast of FL. ...Mid Atlantic... Large-scale ascent will be maximized early in the day Thursday with a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet in place beneath the right-entrance region of an upper jet. This setup will wane rather quickly during the day, with decreased lift and veering low-level winds. Widespread upper 60s F dewpoints and sufficient instability may support a few diurnal storms, but most of the activity is expected to be concentrated in the morning. Given moderate mean wind speeds below 700 mb, a few strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. ...FL... Warm air aloft associated with TS Eta along with very little heating will again yield poor-lapse rate soundings, with weak SBCAPE despite low 70s F surface dewpoints. In addition, the bulk of the enhanced low-level shear is likely to remain offshore, further minimizing tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/10/2020
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