SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging to severe winds and a few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and evening from parts of Missouri northeastward into portions of Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin. ...Mid MS Valley... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max rotating across the central Plains into MO/IA. This feature will result in strong surface cyclogenesis as a surface low deepens along a cold front extending from northern MO into WI. The corridor along and just east of the low/front will be the area of concern for strong/severe thunderstorms today. Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning along the front over MO. Convection is expected to intensify and build northward toward the surface low by early afternoon. CAM solutions indicate that the bowing convective structures will not be substantially undercut by the front, suggesting the activity will remain primarily surface-based. This supports a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cores. Forecast soundings show strengthening low-level shear across the threat area through the afternoon as the deepening low helps to back/enhance near-surface winds. This could promote the development of a few semi-discrete supercells along the line, posing a risk of a few tornadoes. The activity will track northeastward across Lake MI this evening and eventually into northern Lower MI. Thermodynamic parameters will be rather weak over this area, but there is some potential for a lingering risk of locally strong/damaging wind gusts. ...FL... Relatively strong deep southeasterly flow is present today across the FL peninsula. A moist and moderately unstable air mass is also in place across the region, with broken sunshine this afternoon helping to steepen low-level lapse rates. Local VAD profiles show 25-35 knot winds in the 0-3km layer. Most CAM solutions show relatively fast-moving thunderstorms affecting the region, posing a risk of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts. ..Hart/Cook.. 11/10/2020
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