SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A shortwave trough initially over the Great Lakes and Ontario is forecast to quickly shift northeastward into Quebec on Wednesday. A surface low attendant to the shortwave trough is also expected to develop northeastward across Quebec, with a trailing cold front making slow east-southeastward progress across the eastern CONUS through the period. An unseasonably moist low-level airmass, characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be present ahead of the front from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Even so, poor lapse rates and modest diurnal heating will likely limit instability through Wednesday afternoon across these regions. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the shortwave trough should also remain generally displaced to the north of greater low-level moisture. This will limit deep-layer shear across the warm sector, especially with southward extent across the Southeast. Although very isolated instances of strong/gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out with storms that develop along/ahead of the cold front, the overall severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast appears too low to include any severe probabilities for wind at this time. Farther south, Tropical Storm Eta should continue northward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday according to the latest NHC forecast. Some guidance suggests the low-level wind field with Eta will expand on Wednesday, possibly encompassing parts of the FL Gulf Coast. At this point, it appears that the potential for isolated strong/gusty winds associated with low-topped storms embedded in outer rain bands will probably remain offshore. ..Gleason.. 11/10/2020
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