SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough initially over the Great Lakes and Ontario is
forecast to quickly shift northeastward into Quebec on Wednesday. A
surface low attendant to the shortwave trough is also expected to
develop northeastward across Quebec, with a trailing cold front
making slow east-southeastward progress across the eastern CONUS
through the period. An unseasonably moist low-level airmass,
characterized by mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints, should be
present ahead of the front from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the
Southeast. Even so, poor lapse rates and modest diurnal heating will
likely limit instability through Wednesday afternoon across these
regions. The stronger mid-level southwesterly flow associated with
the shortwave trough should also remain generally displaced to the
north of greater low-level moisture. This will limit deep-layer
shear across the warm sector, especially with southward extent
across the Southeast. Although very isolated instances of
strong/gusty winds cannot be entirely ruled out with storms that
develop along/ahead of the cold front, the overall severe threat
across the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast appears too low to include any
severe probabilities for wind at this time.

Farther south, Tropical Storm Eta should continue northward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday according to the latest NHC
forecast. Some guidance suggests the low-level wind field with Eta
will expand on Wednesday, possibly encompassing parts of the FL Gulf
Coast. At this point, it appears that the potential for isolated
strong/gusty winds associated with low-topped storms embedded in
outer rain bands will probably remain offshore.

..Gleason.. 11/10/2020

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