Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West on D4, traveling across northern Mexico and toward the MS Valley by Sat/D5. Ahead of this trough, temperatures aloft will be warm over much of the Southeast, but low-level moisture will increase across the lower MS and TN Valleys, aided by the residual trajectories from Eta. Weak low pressure is forecast to develop across the OH Valley on Sat/D5, with a cold front trailing southwestward into AR/MS/LA. At this time, it appears instability will remain weak, with minimal severe threat. The ECMWF is more amplified with the upper trough than the GFS, and may hold marginal severe potential. While model differences still exist on Sun/D6, the general consensus is for an 80 kt elongated midlevel speed max to nose into the central Plains on Sat/D5, with a deepening upper trough into the OH Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. Given the progressive nature of this trough, high pressure is likely to spread rapidly east from the Plains across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast by Mon/D7 morning, pushing low-level moisture and any instability offshore. While low-end severe potential may eventually materialize over parts of the Southeast or Mid Atlantic given increasing winds aloft, predictability is currently too low.
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