Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

An upper trough is forecast to amplify over the West on D4,
traveling across northern Mexico and toward the MS Valley by Sat/D5.
Ahead of this trough, temperatures aloft will be warm over much of
the Southeast, but low-level moisture will increase across the lower
MS and TN Valleys, aided by the residual trajectories from Eta. Weak
low pressure is forecast to develop across the OH Valley on Sat/D5,
with a cold front trailing southwestward into AR/MS/LA. At this
time, it appears instability will remain weak, with minimal severe
threat. The ECMWF is more amplified with the upper trough than the
GFS, and may hold marginal severe potential. 

While model differences still exist on Sun/D6, the general consensus
is for an 80 kt elongated midlevel speed max to nose into the
central Plains on Sat/D5, with a deepening upper trough into the OH
Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast. Given the progressive nature of
this trough, high pressure is likely to spread rapidly east from the
Plains across the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast by Mon/D7 morning,
pushing low-level moisture and any instability offshore. While
low-end severe potential may eventually materialize over parts of
the Southeast or Mid Atlantic given increasing winds aloft,
predictability is currently too low.

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