SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous
United States today and tonight.

...Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas...

A compact mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes and Ontario early
this morning will lift northeast into Quebec through the period.
Behind this feature, a broader upper trough will remain over
portions of the western and central U.S. At the surface,
unseasonably moist conditions will extend from the Southeast into
parts of the Mid-Atlantic ahead of an eastward-progressing cold
front. While mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints are expected
across much of the Southeast into the Piedmont of NC/VA, stronger
heating will likely be limited by cloud cover and showers. Where
stronger heating does occur in breaks in clouds, instability should
suffice for thunderstorm development ahead of the front. Poor lapse
rates and effective shear generally less than 25 kt should limit
storm organization and intensity, precluding severe concerns. PW
values will be high, greater than 2 inches, and some gusty winds
could accompany the heaviest thunderstorms, but the overall threat
appears to be heavy downpours rather than severe convection.

...Florida...

Tropic Storm Eta persists over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early
this morning. The official National Hurricane Center track forecast
brings Eta slowly north/northeast through the forecast period. This
should keep Eta offshore the Florida Gulf Coast, though some
increase in the low level wind field is expected during the
afternoon and overnight hours. That being said, forecast hodographs
do not appear favorable for any tropical cyclone-related tornado
threat, precluding probabilities at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/11/2020

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