SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely across the contiguous United States today and tonight. ...Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas... A compact mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes and Ontario early this morning will lift northeast into Quebec through the period. Behind this feature, a broader upper trough will remain over portions of the western and central U.S. At the surface, unseasonably moist conditions will extend from the Southeast into parts of the Mid-Atlantic ahead of an eastward-progressing cold front. While mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints are expected across much of the Southeast into the Piedmont of NC/VA, stronger heating will likely be limited by cloud cover and showers. Where stronger heating does occur in breaks in clouds, instability should suffice for thunderstorm development ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates and effective shear generally less than 25 kt should limit storm organization and intensity, precluding severe concerns. PW values will be high, greater than 2 inches, and some gusty winds could accompany the heaviest thunderstorms, but the overall threat appears to be heavy downpours rather than severe convection. ...Florida... Tropic Storm Eta persists over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning. The official National Hurricane Center track forecast brings Eta slowly north/northeast through the forecast period. This should keep Eta offshore the Florida Gulf Coast, though some increase in the low level wind field is expected during the afternoon and overnight hours. That being said, forecast hodographs do not appear favorable for any tropical cyclone-related tornado threat, precluding probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 11/11/2020
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