SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat will exist from the Florida Peninsula to the southern Delmarva. ...Tropical Storm Eta... Large-scale pattern will become increasingly favorable for Tropical Storm Eta to begin lifting north-northeast across the eastern Gulf Basin during the day1 period. Latest model guidance suggests this system will be just west of Tampa at sunrise Thursday, then advance inland later in the day. While appreciable strengthening is not anticipated, strong low-level shear will develop across the central/northern Peninsula such that there will be some concern for low-topped supercells ahead of the cyclone. However, forecast soundings are quite stable with very poor lapse rates in the lowest 6km. NAM forecast values are roughly 4 C/km, which is very weak, even for tropical systems. With surface dew points only in the lower-mid 70s, it appears buoyancy will be extremely limited. The likelihood for robust updrafts in this environment will be challenging and lightning may be extremely limited, or non existent. For these reasons, will not introduce severe probabilities despite the favorably sheared environment. ..Darrow.. 11/11/2020
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