SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1045 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z


Thunderstorm threat will exist from the Florida Peninsula to the
southern Delmarva.

...Tropical Storm Eta...

Large-scale pattern will become increasingly favorable for Tropical
Storm Eta to begin lifting north-northeast across the eastern Gulf
Basin during the day1 period. Latest model guidance suggests this
system will be just west of Tampa at sunrise Thursday, then advance
inland later in the day. While appreciable strengthening is not
anticipated, strong low-level shear will develop across the
central/northern Peninsula such that there will be some concern for
low-topped supercells ahead of the cyclone. However, forecast
soundings are quite stable with very poor lapse rates in the lowest
6km. NAM forecast values are roughly 4 C/km, which is very weak,
even for tropical systems. With surface dew points only in the
lower-mid 70s, it appears buoyancy will be extremely limited. The
likelihood for robust updrafts in this environment will be
challenging and lightning may be extremely limited, or non existent.
For these reasons, will not introduce severe probabilities despite
the favorably sheared environment.

..Darrow.. 11/11/2020

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