SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or Friday night.


A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will be in place on Friday,
with several shortwave troughs migrating through larger-scale, broad
trough encompassing much of the CONUS. One such mid/upper shortwave
will deepen over the western states and eject eastward across the
Rockies and into the Plains by early Saturday morning. Strong
southwesterly low level flow ahead of this features will overspread
the southern/central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. Modest moisture
transport will occur, bringing mainly 40s and 50s F surface
dewpoints into parts of northwest TX, OK and perhaps the Ozarks. As
a low-level jet increases during the evening, warm advection atop a
cooler near-surface boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse
rates should suffice for isolated thunderstorm development from
parts of the southern Plains into Missouri, but severe potential
will be limited by weak instability and the elevated nature of

Further east, what remains of current Tropical Storm Eta is forecast
by the National Hurricane Center to be near northern FL or southeast
GA on Friday and likely beginning the transition from tropical to
extratropical as it interacts with a cold front stalled near the
Southeast coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the
eastern Carolinas into portions of FL where any stronger heating can
occur, resulting in enough destabilization for sustained updrafts.
Given the expected location of Eta at that time, tropical cyclone
tornado activity does not appear to be a concern, and severe
potential is low at this time.

..Leitman.. 11/11/2020

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