SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0108 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or Friday night. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will be in place on Friday, with several shortwave troughs migrating through larger-scale, broad trough encompassing much of the CONUS. One such mid/upper shortwave will deepen over the western states and eject eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains by early Saturday morning. Strong southwesterly low level flow ahead of this features will overspread the southern/central Plains to the mid-MS Valley. Modest moisture transport will occur, bringing mainly 40s and 50s F surface dewpoints into parts of northwest TX, OK and perhaps the Ozarks. As a low-level jet increases during the evening, warm advection atop a cooler near-surface boundary layer and steepening midlevel lapse rates should suffice for isolated thunderstorm development from parts of the southern Plains into Missouri, but severe potential will be limited by weak instability and the elevated nature of convection. Further east, what remains of current Tropical Storm Eta is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be near northern FL or southeast GA on Friday and likely beginning the transition from tropical to extratropical as it interacts with a cold front stalled near the Southeast coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the eastern Carolinas into portions of FL where any stronger heating can occur, resulting in enough destabilization for sustained updrafts. Given the expected location of Eta at that time, tropical cyclone tornado activity does not appear to be a concern, and severe potential is low at this time. ..Leitman.. 11/11/2020
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