SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1022 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Florida mainly northeast through southeast of the center of Hurricane Eta. ...FL... Hurricane Eta is moving slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with outer bands affecting the western coast of the FL Peninsula. A few of the convective elements in these bands have shown indications of weak low-level rotation. Local VAD profiles and forecast soundings show ample low-level shear for a risk of a few spin-ups this afternoon. However, CAM solutions suggest that coverage of more discrete cells will be sparse. Nevertheless, will maintain the ongoing forecast with no changes. ...NC/VA... Water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over middle TN/northern AL moving across the southern Appalachians. This feature will begin to affect parts of VA/NC later this afternoon with slightly strengthening low/mid level winds and vertical shear. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect this region through the day, with the increasing shear likely resulting in a few weakly rotating storms. Forecast hodographs are not particularly favorable for tornadoes, but one or two of the storms could become sufficiently organized to produce locally gusty/damaging winds. ..Hart/Dial.. 11/11/2020
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