SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1022 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Florida mainly
northeast through southeast of the center of Hurricane Eta.

...FL...
Hurricane Eta is moving slowly northward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, with outer bands affecting the western coast of the FL
Peninsula.  A few of the convective elements in these bands have
shown indications of weak low-level rotation.  Local VAD profiles
and forecast soundings show ample low-level shear for a risk of a
few spin-ups this afternoon.  However, CAM solutions suggest that
coverage of more discrete cells will be sparse.  Nevertheless, will
maintain the ongoing forecast with no changes.

...NC/VA...
Water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough over middle
TN/northern AL moving across the southern Appalachians.  This
feature will begin to affect parts of VA/NC later this afternoon
with slightly strengthening low/mid level winds and vertical shear. 
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to affect this region through
the day, with the increasing shear likely resulting in a few weakly
rotating storms.  Forecast hodographs are not particularly favorable
for tornadoes, but one or two of the storms could become
sufficiently organized to produce locally gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Dial.. 11/11/2020

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