SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SC THROUGH EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong to severe storm is possible from northeast South
Carolina through eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A progressive, broadly cyclonic upper pattern is forecast over the
CONUS on Thursday. Eastward progression of a shortwave trough is
anticipated through the Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley, with
eastward expansion of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across the
much of eastern CONUS. This increased vertical shear will result in
a weakening of Tropical Cyclone Eta, which is forecast to begin the
period centered about 35 miles west-southwest of OCF along the
west-central FL coast. Strong low- to mid-level winds will be in
place Thursday morning throughout the eastern periphery of the
cyclone, before weakening during the day as the overall system
weakens. Despite kinematic profiles that would support rotating
storms, weak lapse rates associated with deep warm and moist air
mass surrounding the storm will hamper the development of strong,
persistent updrafts. Limited updraft depth and persistence should
keep the potential for any low-topped supercells very low.

Farther north into the Carolinas, numerous showers and thunderstorms
are anticipated as a slow-moving front interacts with low-level
moisture associated with Eta. The overall thermodynamic profile is
not expected to be as warm and moist as those closer to the cyclone,
contributing to the potential for modest instability. Additionally,
strengthening mid-level flow atop southerly (and perhaps even
southeasterly) low-level winds will result in enough low-level
vertical shear to support an organized storm or two. Storm mode is
generally expected to be linear but occasionally more discrete cells
ahead of the front could result in damaging wind gusts or two, or
maybe even a brief tornado.

..Mosier.. 11/11/2020

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