SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST SC THROUGH EASTERN NC... ...SUMMARY... An isolated strong to severe storm is possible from northeast South Carolina through eastern North Carolina Thursday afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive, broadly cyclonic upper pattern is forecast over the CONUS on Thursday. Eastward progression of a shortwave trough is anticipated through the Plains and Upper/Mid MS Valley, with eastward expansion of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft across the much of eastern CONUS. This increased vertical shear will result in a weakening of Tropical Cyclone Eta, which is forecast to begin the period centered about 35 miles west-southwest of OCF along the west-central FL coast. Strong low- to mid-level winds will be in place Thursday morning throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone, before weakening during the day as the overall system weakens. Despite kinematic profiles that would support rotating storms, weak lapse rates associated with deep warm and moist air mass surrounding the storm will hamper the development of strong, persistent updrafts. Limited updraft depth and persistence should keep the potential for any low-topped supercells very low. Farther north into the Carolinas, numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated as a slow-moving front interacts with low-level moisture associated with Eta. The overall thermodynamic profile is not expected to be as warm and moist as those closer to the cyclone, contributing to the potential for modest instability. Additionally, strengthening mid-level flow atop southerly (and perhaps even southeasterly) low-level winds will result in enough low-level vertical shear to support an organized storm or two. Storm mode is generally expected to be linear but occasionally more discrete cells ahead of the front could result in damaging wind gusts or two, or maybe even a brief tornado. ..Mosier.. 11/11/2020
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