Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid/upper level trough over the Plains on Day 4/Sat will intensify
as it tracks across the Midwest and eastern U.S. through Day 5/Sun.
At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern Plains
and deepen as it tracks eastward across the Upper Midwest on Day
4/Sat, and into Quebec by early Day 6/Mon. A trailing cold front
attendant to the low will sweep eastward across the Plains to the
Atlantic and Gulf coasts by Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front,
modest moisture will return northward through the lower MS Valley to
the lower OH and TN Valleys on Day 5/Sun, and thunderstorms will be
possible across parts of the Midwest and Mid-South vicinity. At this
time, it appears instability will be limited, and higher-quality
moisture displaces to the south of better forcing and stronger shear
profiles closer to the surface low and midlevel trough. Thus, severe
potential appears low. 

The upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern
CONUS through Day 7/Tue, while an amplified upper ridge develops
across the western and central U.S. Strong surface high pressure
will develop from the Rockies eastward behind the weekend cold
frontal passage, and persist through much of the rest of the period,
precluding severe potential through early/middle of next week.

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