Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper level trough over the Plains on Day 4/Sat will intensify as it tracks across the Midwest and eastern U.S. through Day 5/Sun. At the surface, low pressure will develop over the northern Plains and deepen as it tracks eastward across the Upper Midwest on Day 4/Sat, and into Quebec by early Day 6/Mon. A trailing cold front attendant to the low will sweep eastward across the Plains to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by Monday morning. Ahead of the cold front, modest moisture will return northward through the lower MS Valley to the lower OH and TN Valleys on Day 5/Sun, and thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Midwest and Mid-South vicinity. At this time, it appears instability will be limited, and higher-quality moisture displaces to the south of better forcing and stronger shear profiles closer to the surface low and midlevel trough. Thus, severe potential appears low. The upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern CONUS through Day 7/Tue, while an amplified upper ridge develops across the western and central U.S. Strong surface high pressure will develop from the Rockies eastward behind the weekend cold frontal passage, and persist through much of the rest of the period, precluding severe potential through early/middle of next week.
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