SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA AND NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain possible tonight across parts of Florida, North Carolina, and the Middle Atlantic. ...01z Update... Tropical Storm Eta remains just off the central FL Gulf Coast this evening. This cyclone should continue to advance slowly northeast tonight in line with latest short-range guidance. 00z sounding at TBW exhibits very poor lapse rates through a deep layer and thermodynamic profiles may actually get weaker through sunrise immediately ahead of Eta. The primary threat for deep convection, capable of generating lightning, has shifted to the FL Atlantic Coast and across NC/Middle Atlantic region where buoyancy is a bit stronger due to steeper lapse rates. While low-level shear is obviously conducive for shallow supercells across portions of FL, weakening buoyancy necessitates lowering severe probabilities in association with Eta. Farther north across NC/VA, modest deep-layer flow is contributing to some convective organization, especially with stronger updrafts. Recent trends suggest the surface front will continue to be a focus for potentially strong/severe thunderstorm development, especially later tonight as LLJ strengthens along the NC/VA border. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2020
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