SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA AND NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two remain possible
tonight across parts of Florida, North Carolina, and the Middle
Atlantic.

...01z Update...

Tropical Storm Eta remains just off the central FL Gulf Coast this
evening. This cyclone should continue to advance slowly northeast
tonight in line with latest short-range guidance. 00z sounding at
TBW exhibits very poor lapse rates through a deep layer and
thermodynamic profiles may actually get weaker through sunrise
immediately ahead of Eta. The primary threat for deep convection,
capable of generating lightning, has shifted to the FL Atlantic
Coast and across NC/Middle Atlantic region where buoyancy is a bit
stronger due to steeper lapse rates.

While low-level shear is obviously conducive for shallow supercells
across portions of FL, weakening buoyancy necessitates lowering
severe probabilities in association with Eta. Farther north across
NC/VA, modest deep-layer flow is contributing to some convective
organization, especially with stronger updrafts. Recent trends
suggest the surface front will continue to be a focus for
potentially strong/severe thunderstorm development, especially later
tonight as LLJ strengthens along the NC/VA border.

..Darrow.. 11/12/2020

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