SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Carolinas.

...Carolinas...

TS Eta is expected to begin ejecting northeast later today as this
feature is gradually absorbed within stronger southwesterly flow
that extends into the Gulf States. While the center of circulation
has yet to move onshore, thermodynamic environment immediately
downstream has become quite weak with poor lapse rates and scant
buoyancy, as evident by lightning trends. Although low-level shear
will certainly increase across northern FL later this morning, it
appears instability necessary for potential robust updrafts will be
limited to portions of the Carolinas. Have opted to maintain low
severe probabilities across this region ahead of a cold front that
should settle into the Coastal Plain by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings ahead of the front exhibit modest deep-layer flow but
pseudoadiabatic lapse rates. This will limit instability, but
soundings do suggest the strongest updrafts should penetrate levels
necessary for lightning. Even so, gusty winds, or perhaps a brief,
weak tornado, will be the primary risks with pre-frontal convection
across this region.

..Darrow.. 11/12/2020

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