SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2020 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...Carolinas... TS Eta is expected to begin ejecting northeast later today as this feature is gradually absorbed within stronger southwesterly flow that extends into the Gulf States. While the center of circulation has yet to move onshore, thermodynamic environment immediately downstream has become quite weak with poor lapse rates and scant buoyancy, as evident by lightning trends. Although low-level shear will certainly increase across northern FL later this morning, it appears instability necessary for potential robust updrafts will be limited to portions of the Carolinas. Have opted to maintain low severe probabilities across this region ahead of a cold front that should settle into the Coastal Plain by late afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead of the front exhibit modest deep-layer flow but pseudoadiabatic lapse rates. This will limit instability, but soundings do suggest the strongest updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning. Even so, gusty winds, or perhaps a brief, weak tornado, will be the primary risks with pre-frontal convection across this region. ..Darrow.. 11/12/2020
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