SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern Oklahoma and the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday afternoon and night. ...Synopsis... Large-scale trough amplification is likely to occur over the northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Primary surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Upper Midwest, with modest-caliber low-level moisture steadily advecting north-northeastward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. ...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex... It is probable that low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward into the region by late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night in advance of the east/southeastward-moving cold front. Early day convection is a point of uncertainty and potential limitation, particularly regarding the northward extent of modest later-day destabilization. As compared to the 00Z NAM/GFS, the 00Z ECMWF (and semi-consistent prior runs) features notably stronger cyclogenesis farther south across Missouri/Iowa toward the middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with higher moisture content and somewhat greater available instability (albeit modest overall) across this region. Regardless, it would appear that at least some severe-weather potential will exist across the region late Saturday afternoon, and more so Saturday evening. While moisture/buoyancy details are not clear, hodographs would support the potential for fast-moving semi-discrete supercells and linear segments where adequate destabilization does occur, with a corresponding potential for damaging winds along with a tornado risk. This severe potential currently appears most probable across eastern Oklahoma/far northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri. ..Guyer.. 11/12/2020
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