SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA/OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across eastern Oklahoma and
the Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex regions late Saturday afternoon and night.

...Synopsis...
Large-scale trough amplification is likely to occur over the
northern/central Rockies toward the Upper Midwest and Middle/Lower
Missouri Valley Saturday and Saturday night. Primary surface
cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Upper Midwest, with
modest-caliber low-level moisture steadily advecting
north-northeastward in advance of an eastward-moving cold front.

...Eastern Oklahoma/Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
It is probable that low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will
develop northward into the region by late Saturday afternoon and
Saturday night in advance of the east/southeastward-moving cold
front. Early day convection is a point of uncertainty and potential
limitation, particularly regarding the northward extent of modest
later-day destabilization. As compared to the 00Z NAM/GFS, the 00Z
ECMWF (and semi-consistent prior runs) features notably stronger
cyclogenesis farther south across Missouri/Iowa toward the
middle/upper Mississippi Valley, with higher moisture content and
somewhat greater available instability (albeit modest overall)
across this region. Regardless, it would appear that at least some
severe-weather potential will exist across the region late Saturday
afternoon, and more so Saturday evening. While moisture/buoyancy
details are not clear, hodographs would support the potential for
fast-moving semi-discrete supercells and linear segments where
adequate destabilization does occur, with a corresponding potential
for damaging winds along with a tornado risk. This severe potential
currently appears most probable across eastern Oklahoma/far
northeast Texas into Arkansas and southern Missouri.

..Guyer.. 11/12/2020

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