SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday or Friday night.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Progressive upper pattern is expected to gradually amplify on
Friday, as one shortwave trough moves quickly through the Northeast
and another pair of shortwave troughs move across the western CONUS.
Northernmost of the two western CONUS shortwaves is forecast to move
through the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Great Basin,
while the southern shortwave moves through the Southwest into the
southern Plains. 

At the surface, high pressure initially centered over the central
Plains and mid MS Valley is expected to shift quickly northeastward
as lee troughing develops over the High Plains ahead of the western
CONUS shortwaves. Given this early day position of the surface high
pressure, more favorable low-level moisture (i.e. low to mid 60s
dewpoints) will remain over central/southern TX and the FL Peninsula
for much of the day. However, the deepening lee trough and
associated tightening of the surface pressure gradient combined with
a strengthening low-level jet will help advect moisture northward
Friday evening and overnight. As a result, low 60s dewpoints may
reach as far as the TX/OK border by early Saturday morning. Some
isolated elevated thunderstorms (rooted around 850 to 800 mb) are
also possible within this warm-air advection regime. Limited
buoyancy is forecast to keep any severe potential very low.

Isolated lightning is also possible across coastal portions of the
Pacific Northwest as the frontal band attendant to the shortwave
trough progressing over the region moves through Friday afternoon. A
few post-frontal strikes are possible as well.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2020

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