SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United
States from now through early Friday morning.

...20Z Update...

...NC/SC...
Trends within surface observations, radar imagery, mesoanalysis, and
lightning data suggest any severe potential along the leading edge
of the cold front has moved offshore. Any lightning potential has
moved offshore as well. As a result, both severe and general thunder
areas have been removed with this outlook.

..Mosier.. 11/12/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/

...NC/SC...
The remnants of Eta are tracking northeastward over southeast GA. 
Ahead of this system, widespread showers and occasional
thunderstorms are affecting the Carolinas in advance of an
approaching upper trough.  Recent radar/observational trends show a
surface cold front surging southward across NC.  This feature is
effectively narrowing the corridor of any risk of strong/severe
storms to the coastal counties.  Even here, widespread clouds will
limit destabilization and minimize the risk.  Nevertheless, vertical
shear profiles are sufficiently strong to pose some risk of
gusty/damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado if storm-scale rotation
can become established.  The primary threat should end by late
afternoon as the surging cold front moves offshore.

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