SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected across the continental United States from now through early Friday morning. ...20Z Update... ...NC/SC... Trends within surface observations, radar imagery, mesoanalysis, and lightning data suggest any severe potential along the leading edge of the cold front has moved offshore. Any lightning potential has moved offshore as well. As a result, both severe and general thunder areas have been removed with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 11/12/2020 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2020/ ...NC/SC... The remnants of Eta are tracking northeastward over southeast GA. Ahead of this system, widespread showers and occasional thunderstorms are affecting the Carolinas in advance of an approaching upper trough. Recent radar/observational trends show a surface cold front surging southward across NC. This feature is effectively narrowing the corridor of any risk of strong/severe storms to the coastal counties. Even here, widespread clouds will limit destabilization and minimize the risk. Nevertheless, vertical shear profiles are sufficiently strong to pose some risk of gusty/damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado if storm-scale rotation can become established. The primary threat should end by late afternoon as the surging cold front moves offshore.
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