SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

Tropical storm Eta will be located off the Carolina Coastline this
morning, and is expected to continue eastward into the Atlantic
through the rest of the period. As surface high pressure settles in
across the Southeast coastline, overall drier low-level conditions
will prevail, though a few remnant showers and thunderstorms may
still occur along North Carolina Outer Banks and southeast Florida
coast, mainly during the morning/early afternoon hours.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will amplify as it rapidly progresses
eastward across the western CONUS. Ample ascent and marginal
buoyancy may promote a couple of thunderstorms along the Pacific
Northwest Coast during the day, with isolated lightning flashes
possible across northeast parts of the Great Basin overnight as the
upper trough shifts east. In advance of the trough aloft, surface
lee troughing is expected to occur across the Plains states during
the later half of the period. Low-level WAA will support modest
moistening in the 850-700 mb level, where elevated convection is
expected to be based with MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg in
spots. At least isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are
expected to accompany the WAA regime across parts of the southern
Plains into the mid-Missouri Valley, mainly in the 04-12Z period. A
few instances of small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 11/13/2020

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