SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2020 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Tropical storm Eta will be located off the Carolina Coastline this morning, and is expected to continue eastward into the Atlantic through the rest of the period. As surface high pressure settles in across the Southeast coastline, overall drier low-level conditions will prevail, though a few remnant showers and thunderstorms may still occur along North Carolina Outer Banks and southeast Florida coast, mainly during the morning/early afternoon hours. Meanwhile, an upper trough will amplify as it rapidly progresses eastward across the western CONUS. Ample ascent and marginal buoyancy may promote a couple of thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest Coast during the day, with isolated lightning flashes possible across northeast parts of the Great Basin overnight as the upper trough shifts east. In advance of the trough aloft, surface lee troughing is expected to occur across the Plains states during the later half of the period. Low-level WAA will support modest moistening in the 850-700 mb level, where elevated convection is expected to be based with MUCAPE values as high as 500 J/kg in spots. At least isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the WAA regime across parts of the southern Plains into the mid-Missouri Valley, mainly in the 04-12Z period. A few instances of small hail cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/13/2020
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