SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Although organized severe-weather potential is currently expected to remain minimal on Sunday, a few thunderstorms with gusty winds may occur over parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Sunday morning is expected to quickly spread east-northeastward over Ontario/Quebec and the Northeast States through Sunday night. An associated cold front will race generally eastward over the eastern third of the CONUS. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States... Scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Upper Ohio Valley and Great Lakes near/ahead of a fast-moving cold front. This convection will quickly transition east-northeastward across the region during the day. In the presence of minimal low-level moisture and limited buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE at most), various model forecast soundings suggest that buoyancy depth will tend to be too shallow for charge separation, although thermodynamic profiles may be conducive for localized/isolated lightning flashes in the presence of strong forcing for ascent. While organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected, the potential does exist for some convectively enhanced wind gusts as modest diurnal heating occurs coincident with very strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds within the lowest 1-2 km AGL. ...Coastal Texas to Southeast States/Florida... These areas will be located well to the south of more appreciable height falls/forcing for ascent, although corridors of weak convection may occur near the southeast-moving cold front. Forecast soundings for areas such as coastal Texas and the Florida Peninsula/nearby Southeast States generally reflect poor mid-level lapse rates and a persistent inversion aloft. Thus, the potential for thunderstorms currently appears low (less than 10 percent). ..Guyer.. 11/13/2020
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