SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z


Although organized severe-weather potential is currently expected to
remain minimal on Sunday, a few thunderstorms with gusty winds may
occur over parts of the Upper Ohio Valley and Northeast States.

An upper trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes Sunday
morning is expected to quickly spread east-northeastward over
Ontario/Quebec and the Northeast States through Sunday night. An
associated cold front will race generally eastward over the eastern
third of the CONUS.

...Upper Ohio Valley/Northeast States...
Scattered to numerous showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are
likely to be ongoing Sunday morning across the Upper Ohio Valley and
Great Lakes near/ahead of a fast-moving cold front. This convection
will quickly transition east-northeastward across the region during
the day. In the presence of minimal low-level moisture and limited
buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE at most), various model forecast
soundings suggest that buoyancy depth will tend to be too shallow
for charge separation, although thermodynamic profiles may be
conducive for localized/isolated lightning flashes in the presence
of strong forcing for ascent. While organized severe thunderstorms
are not currently expected, the potential does exist for some
convectively enhanced wind gusts as modest diurnal heating occurs
coincident with very strong (50+ kt) west-southwesterly winds within
the lowest 1-2 km AGL.

...Coastal Texas to Southeast States/Florida...
These areas will be located well to the south of more appreciable
height falls/forcing for ascent, although corridors of weak
convection may occur near the southeast-moving cold front. Forecast
soundings for areas such as coastal Texas and the Florida
Peninsula/nearby Southeast States generally reflect poor mid-level
lapse rates and a persistent inversion aloft. Thus, the potential
for thunderstorms currently appears low (less than 10 percent).

..Guyer.. 11/13/2020

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