SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The overall forecast remains on track with no changes needed.

..Mosier.. 11/13/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2020/

...Southern Plains through Middle Mississippi Valley...

The atmosphere will destabilize in the 850-400 mb layer tonight from
a portion of the southern Plains into MO due to modest positive
theta-e advection accompanying a strengthening southerly low-level
jet. Forcing for ascent will increase in association with the
low-level jet and an approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough,
contributing the development of thunderstorms from northwest TX into
MO later tonight. Activity will remain elevated above a stable
surface layer with no severe weather expected.

...Western States...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected today from the Pacific NW and
the northern Rockies as steeper lapse rates and strong forcing for
ascent spread inland in association with a progressive shortwave
trough and its attendant upper jet.

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