SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain low across the Ohio Valley and southern New England Sunday into Sunday night, though gusty winds will be possible with shallow convection. ...OH Valley to southern New England... A midlevel shortwave trough will reach peak amplitude and will move quickly eastward over the OH Valley Sunday and New England Sunday night. A deep, associated surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes at the beginning of the period will develop northeastward across parts of ON/QC, while a trailing cold front moves quickly eastward. This front will focus shallow convection and some low-end potential for lightning flashes. Low-level moisture return into the OH Valley will be substantially more limited compared to areas farther southwest on Saturday. Boundary-layer dewpoints should be confined to the mid-upper 40s by midday across the upper OH Valley, immediately in advance of the front. Shallow buoyancy is expected along the cold front as low-level lapse rates steepen with modest surface heating and cooling above the surface. The depth of the buoyancy will be questionable for charge separation and lightning production with bands of shallow convection focused in the zone of ascent along the front during the day across OH/PA/NY. A corridor of low-level moistening from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England should help maintain weak buoyancy rooted near or just above the ground into early Sunday night across southern New England. Though the potential for lightning will remain limited, there is a small chance of strong/damaging gusts driven by the shallow convection given SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg and 50-60 kt flow in the lowest 2 km above ground level. Thus, will maintain a general thunderstorm area and will continue to re-evaluate the potential for strong convective gusts with shallow convection in later updates. ...Elsewhere... Pre-frontal destabilization will be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms along a cold front during the afternoon across deep South TX. Rain showers will be possible across central FL, though any convection here will be limited by a pronounced midlevel inversion. ..Thompson.. 11/14/2020
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