SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2020

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z


The threat for thunderstorms is expected to remain low across the
Ohio Valley and southern New England Sunday into Sunday night,
though gusty winds will be possible with shallow convection.

...OH Valley to southern New England...
A midlevel shortwave trough will reach peak amplitude and will move
quickly eastward over the OH Valley Sunday and New England Sunday
night.  A deep, associated surface cyclone over the upper Great
Lakes at the beginning of the period will develop northeastward
across parts of ON/QC, while a trailing cold front moves quickly
eastward.  This front will focus shallow convection and some low-end
potential for lightning flashes.

Low-level moisture return into the OH Valley will be substantially
more limited compared to areas farther southwest on Saturday. 
Boundary-layer dewpoints should be confined to the mid-upper 40s by
midday across the upper OH Valley, immediately in advance of the
front.  Shallow buoyancy is expected along the cold front as
low-level lapse rates steepen with modest surface heating and
cooling above the surface.  The depth of the buoyancy will be
questionable for charge separation and lightning production with
bands of shallow convection focused in the zone of ascent along the
front during the day across OH/PA/NY.  A corridor of low-level
moistening from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England should
help maintain weak buoyancy rooted near or just above the ground
into early Sunday night across southern New England.  Though the
potential for lightning will remain limited, there is a small chance
of strong/damaging gusts driven by the shallow convection given
SBCAPE of 100-200 J/kg and 50-60 kt flow in the lowest 2 km above
ground level.  Thus, will maintain a general thunderstorm area and
will continue to re-evaluate the potential for strong convective
gusts with shallow convection in later updates.

Pre-frontal destabilization will be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorms along a cold front during the afternoon across deep
South TX.  Rain showers will be possible across central FL, though
any convection here will be limited by a pronounced midlevel

..Thompson.. 11/14/2020

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