SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday and Monday night.


An amplified but semi-progressive mid/upper level pattern will exist
across the CONUS on Monday. An upper trough over the western states
will shift eastward across the Rockies as a shortwave trough
develops southeastward into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday
morning. Further east, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the
northern Plains will intensify as it ejects eastward across the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will persist
across much of the West and southeastern states, but low pressure
will develop across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in association
with the deepening mid/upper shortwave trough. This will bring a
reinforcing cold front and shot of cooler weather across this
region. Convection with this frontal system appear unlikely given a
dearth of boundary-layer moisture will be left behind in the wake of
a cold frontal passage in the Days 1/2-Sat/Sun period. 

The stalled remains of the cold front from the Days 1/2 will be
draped across the FL Peninsula on Monday. Dewpoints in the upper 60s
and low 70s a modest heating will result in weak instability and
isolated thunderstorms are possible as the front slowly sags
southward through the period. Weak overall thermodynamic and
kinematic fields will preclude any organized severe threat.

..Leitman.. 11/14/2020

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