SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Monday and Monday night. ...Synopsis... An amplified but semi-progressive mid/upper level pattern will exist across the CONUS on Monday. An upper trough over the western states will shift eastward across the Rockies as a shortwave trough develops southeastward into the Pacific Northwest by Tuesday morning. Further east, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains will intensify as it ejects eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the West and southeastern states, but low pressure will develop across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in association with the deepening mid/upper shortwave trough. This will bring a reinforcing cold front and shot of cooler weather across this region. Convection with this frontal system appear unlikely given a dearth of boundary-layer moisture will be left behind in the wake of a cold frontal passage in the Days 1/2-Sat/Sun period. The stalled remains of the cold front from the Days 1/2 will be draped across the FL Peninsula on Monday. Dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s a modest heating will result in weak instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible as the front slowly sags southward through the period. Weak overall thermodynamic and kinematic fields will preclude any organized severe threat. ..Leitman.. 11/14/2020
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