SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and the threat of a few tornadoes this evening into tonight over parts of Missouri and Arkansas. ...MO/AR... Latest water vapor loop shows an amplifying upper trough over the central Rockies. This system will intensify and move into the Plains this evening - and into the mid MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a cold front will extend from central IA/MO into northeast OK by evening. This boundary will provide the focus for thunderstorm development. Present indications are that thunderstorms will begin to form - mainly after dark - from southeast IA into central MO and northwest AR. Moisture/instability will be very limited in the northern parts of the risk area, limiting a more robust severe event. However from central MO southward into northwest AR, forecast soundings suggest dewpoints approaching 60F and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. This should yield sufficient CAPE for a few vigorous updrafts with supercells possible for a few hours. Very strong vertical shear would suggest a risk of all hazards in these fast-moving storms, including a few tornadoes. Storms will likely organize into bowing segments tonight and move into a progressively more stable air mass. Nevertheless, the potential for locally damaging wind gusts could be maintained as far east as southern IL and western KY/TN. ..Hart/Dean.. 11/14/2020
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