SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and the threat of a few
tornadoes this evening into tonight over parts of Missouri and
Arkansas.

...MO/AR...
Latest water vapor loop shows an amplifying upper trough over the
central Rockies.  This system will intensify and move into the
Plains this evening - and into the mid MS Valley overnight.  At the
surface, a cold front will extend from central IA/MO into northeast
OK by evening.  This boundary will provide the focus for
thunderstorm development.

Present indications are that thunderstorms will begin to form -
mainly after dark - from southeast IA into central MO and northwest
AR.  Moisture/instability will be very limited in the northern parts
of the risk area, limiting a more robust severe event.  However from
central MO southward into northwest AR, forecast soundings suggest
dewpoints approaching 60F and moderately steep mid-level lapse
rates.  This should yield sufficient CAPE for a few vigorous
updrafts with supercells possible for a few hours.  Very strong
vertical shear would suggest a risk of all hazards in these
fast-moving storms, including a few tornadoes.  Storms will likely
organize into bowing segments tonight and move into a progressively
more stable air mass.  Nevertheless, the potential for locally
damaging wind gusts could be maintained as far east as southern IL
and western KY/TN.

..Hart/Dean.. 11/14/2020

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