Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day 4-8 period.
An amplified mid/upper level pattern, with a ridge in the west and a
trough in the east, will de-amplify with time. The western upper
ridge will shift eastward, weakening over the Great Lakes and New
England through Day 6/Thu. In the wake of this feature, the upper
flow regime will become more quasi-zonal. Surface high pressure is
expected to persist over much of the eastern half of the CONUS,
resulting in dry and quiescent conditions for much of the weak. Some
weak Gulf return flow is possible across parts of the south-central
states around Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Forecast guidance suggests at least
a weak shortwave mid/upper trough may eject across the Rockies and
into the northern/central Plains during that time, resulting in a
lee surface low and southerly low level return flow ahead of another
cold front. Details in timing and location of this feature vary, but
some shower or thunderstorm activity could return to parts of the
south-central U.S. by next weekend.

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