SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and the threat of a few tornadoes this evening into tonight over parts of Missouri and Arkansas. ...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... The latest water vapor imagery has an upper-level trough over the central Plains with west-southwest mid-level flow over the southern and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front is moving east-southeastward across far eastern Kansas with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture in far western Arkansas extending northward into far southwest Missouri. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s F along the moist axis which is contributing to a pocket of moderate instability, with the RAP showing MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern end of this moderate instability from far northeastern Oklahoma into western Missouri. The storms are located near the nose of a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet, which is creating strong deep-layer shear and enhancing lift across the Ozarks. The Springfield WSR-88D VWP is sampling the mid-level jet well with 0-6 km shear near 85 kt. This will be favorable supercell development early this evening. In addition to the mid-level jet, a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over southwest Missouri. This is helping to create conditions supportive of a tornado threat. Tornadoes will be possible over the next few hours with cells that remain semi-discrete on the western side of the low-level jet. The greatest potential for tornadoes will exist from northwest Arkansas into southwest and central Missouri. Cell coverage is expected to dramatically increase by mid evening with a squall-line organizing ahead of the front. The squall-line will move east-southeastward across much of Missouri this evening. The line appears likely to also develop southwestward into central and northern Arkansas during the mid to late evening. Wind damage will be possible with the stronger portions of the line. Parts of the line that approach and cross the Mississippi River will encounter weaker instability, marginalizing the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 11/15/2020
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