SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OZARKS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and the threat of a few
tornadoes this evening into tonight over parts of Missouri and
Arkansas.

...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery has an upper-level trough over the
central Plains with west-southwest mid-level flow over the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a cold front is moving east-southeastward across far
eastern Kansas with a corridor of maximized low-level moisture in
far western Arkansas extending northward into far southwest
Missouri. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s F along the moist axis
which is contributing to a pocket of moderate instability, with the
RAP showing MLCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are ongoing along the northern end of this moderate
instability from far northeastern Oklahoma into western Missouri. 

The storms are located near the nose of a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet,
which is creating strong deep-layer shear and enhancing lift across
the Ozarks. The Springfield WSR-88D VWP is sampling the mid-level
jet well with 0-6 km shear near 85 kt. This will be favorable
supercell development early this evening. In addition to the
mid-level jet, a 50 to 60 kt low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP
over southwest Missouri. This is helping to create conditions
supportive of a tornado threat. Tornadoes will be possible over the
next few hours with cells that remain semi-discrete on the western
side of the low-level jet. The greatest potential for tornadoes will
exist from northwest Arkansas into southwest and central Missouri.
Cell coverage is expected to dramatically increase by mid evening
with a squall-line organizing ahead of the front. The squall-line
will move east-southeastward across much of Missouri this evening.
The line appears likely to also develop southwestward into central
and northern Arkansas during the mid to late evening. Wind damage
will be possible with the stronger portions of the line. Parts of
the line that approach and cross the Mississippi River will
encounter weaker instability, marginalizing the severe threat.

..Broyles.. 11/15/2020

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