SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Low-topped showers and thunderstorms associated with damaging wind gusts will move across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, eastern New York and New England this evening into the early overnight period. ...Mid-Atlantic/Eastern New York/New England... The latest water vapor imagery shows a negatively tiled shortwave trough moving northeastward across the lower Great Lakes region. At the surface, a 986 mb low is located in eastern Ontario with a cold front moving eastward across the lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states. A narrow convective line with sparse lightning is located along the front in eastern Pennsylvania with additional short lines of convection further south in Maryland and northern Virginia. The WSR-88D VWPs at Albany, New York and Dover, Delaware both have very strong winds just above the surface with about 65 kt at 1 km above ground level. The showers and thunderstorms associated with the narrow band will be effective at mixing this wind to the surface, resulting in damaging wind gusts..see MCD 1804. The potential for damaging wind gusts will extend northward into eastern New York as the northern end of the line moves eastward this evening, eventually affecting parts of southern and eastern New England...see MCD 1805. ..Broyles.. 11/16/2020
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