SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today through tonight.

Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail across the eastern CONUS
as ridging aloft builds across the Intermountain West during the
day, and a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast by evening.
Surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions will prevail
across most of the CONUS, limiting the severe threat as well as
thunderstorm potential to a large degree. A few instances of
lightning flashes may be noted in some spots across the CONUS.

Across portions of the Florida Peninsula, enough low-level moisture
and associated buoyancy will exist ahead of a southward sagging cold
front to support thunderstorm development. However, deep-layer
ascent will be quite weak across the region, and convective cells
producing lightning flashes are expected to remain isolated. An
embedded mid-level impulse is expected to pivot around the trough
approaching the West Coast, with very marginal buoyancy but
deep-layer ascent potentially supporting isolated flashes in
proximity to the Washington Coastline in the 00-06Z time frame.
Finally, a mid-level impulse embedded in the broad cyclonic flow
aloft is expected to traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great
Lakes region during the Day 1 period. A couple guidance members
depict very marginal buoyancy accompanying this impulse, and a
lightning flash or two cannot be completely ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 11/16/2020

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