SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic mid-level flow will prevail across the eastern CONUS as ridging aloft builds across the Intermountain West during the day, and a mid-level trough approaches the West Coast by evening. Surface high pressure and associated cooler conditions will prevail across most of the CONUS, limiting the severe threat as well as thunderstorm potential to a large degree. A few instances of lightning flashes may be noted in some spots across the CONUS. Across portions of the Florida Peninsula, enough low-level moisture and associated buoyancy will exist ahead of a southward sagging cold front to support thunderstorm development. However, deep-layer ascent will be quite weak across the region, and convective cells producing lightning flashes are expected to remain isolated. An embedded mid-level impulse is expected to pivot around the trough approaching the West Coast, with very marginal buoyancy but deep-layer ascent potentially supporting isolated flashes in proximity to the Washington Coastline in the 00-06Z time frame. Finally, a mid-level impulse embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft is expected to traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes region during the Day 1 period. A couple guidance members depict very marginal buoyancy accompanying this impulse, and a lightning flash or two cannot be completely ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2020
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