SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday

The upper-air pattern across the CONUS will feature progressive,
high-amplitude troughing in the East, moving offshore from the
Atlantic Coast late in the period, and ridging moving from the
Rockies across the Great Plains.  Height falls are forecast over
much of the Pacific Coast in advance of a series of shortwave
troughs in cyclonic flow, south of a large cyclone located west of
Vancouver Island.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and cooling aloft with
these perturbations -- atop a moist marine layer -- should support
isolated and sporadic lightning amidst areas of mostly shallow
towering cumuli and cumulonimbi moving ashore from the Pacific. 

In association with the eastern troughing, a cold front now located
from the eastern Carolinas to the north-central/northwestern Gulf
will progress southeastward down the FL Peninsula through day 1 and
decelerate/weaken into day 2.  Modest but marginally sufficient
low/middle-level lapse rates are evident in forecast soundings atop
rich low-level moisture, within and south of the front, in support
of convective potential.  The main question will be strength of lift
in support of sustaining convergence/convection deep enough to
generate lightning, given the subtlety of the wind shift
(northeasterly north of the front, easterly to east-northeasterly to
its south).  For now, will maintain a low-end thunder line for south
FL, with the expectation that the bulk of lightning should be over
nearby Atlantic/Gulf waters where sea-air fluxes may provide better
thermodynamic support.

..Edwards.. 11/16/2020

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