SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...Synopsis/Discussion... The upper-air pattern across the CONUS will feature progressive, high-amplitude troughing in the East, moving offshore from the Atlantic Coast late in the period, and ridging moving from the Rockies across the Great Plains. Height falls are forecast over much of the Pacific Coast in advance of a series of shortwave troughs in cyclonic flow, south of a large cyclone located west of Vancouver Island. Steep midlevel lapse rates and cooling aloft with these perturbations -- atop a moist marine layer -- should support isolated and sporadic lightning amidst areas of mostly shallow towering cumuli and cumulonimbi moving ashore from the Pacific. In association with the eastern troughing, a cold front now located from the eastern Carolinas to the north-central/northwestern Gulf will progress southeastward down the FL Peninsula through day 1 and decelerate/weaken into day 2. Modest but marginally sufficient low/middle-level lapse rates are evident in forecast soundings atop rich low-level moisture, within and south of the front, in support of convective potential. The main question will be strength of lift in support of sustaining convergence/convection deep enough to generate lightning, given the subtlety of the wind shift (northeasterly north of the front, easterly to east-northeasterly to its south). For now, will maintain a low-end thunder line for south FL, with the expectation that the bulk of lightning should be over nearby Atlantic/Gulf waters where sea-air fluxes may provide better thermodynamic support. ..Edwards.. 11/16/2020
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