SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

...Synopsis...

A somewhat amplified but progressive mid/upper-level pattern will
exist over the CONUS on Wednesday. The period will begin with an
amplified upper ridge oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
south-central states. Upper-level troughs will flank either side of
the ridge, oriented near the Pacific and Atlantic coasts. As the
Pacific trough shifts east, the upper ridge will deamplify as it
migrates eastward across the eastern U.S., and overall upper flow
pattern will become quasi-zonal. 

Strong surface high pressure east of the Mississippi River will
maintain dry and stable conditions with little thunderstorm activity
expected. A weak surface lee trough will develop over the central
and southern Plains after 00z, resulting in modest Gulf return flow
across Texas and perhaps into Oklahoma, though instability will be
too meager and moisture too shallow to support any thunderstorm
activity in this weak WAA regime. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible near the Pacific Northwest coast from WA/OR into northeast
CA ahead of a weak front moving onshore early in the period. Cold
temperatures aloft will result in steep lapse rates and weak, albeit
sufficient instability supporting sporadic lightning flashes. As the
upper trough weakens and shifts east with time, thunderstorm
activity should diminish into the evening/overnight hours. Weak
instability and modest shear will preclude severe thunderstorm
concerns.

..Leitman.. 11/16/2020

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