SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across most of
the U.S.

A mid-level trough across the East Coast and an upper ridge across
the central CONUS will move eastward as surface high pressure and
associated deep-layer subsidence dominates much of the
central/eastern U.S. Broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail along
the West Coast, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses pivoting
around the cyclonic upper flow. Deep-layer ascent atop modest
low-level buoyancy provided by a moist marine layer will promote
isolated thunderstorm development today through tonight. NAM, GFS
and RAP Forecast soundings suggest convective parcels will be
surface based, with up to 100-200 J/kg 0-3km CAPE possible along the
northern California and Oregon coastline, and 500 meter winds
reaching the 35-50 kt range. As such, a few of the stronger storms
may promote efficient downward momentum transport of these stronger
winds aloft to foster an occasional damaging gust or two. Otherwise,
an isolated thunderstorm may occur during the day ahead of a
southward sagging cold front across far southern Florida into the
Florida Keys.

..Squitieri.. 11/17/2020

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