SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CST Mon Nov 16 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday or Wednesday
night.

...Pacific Northwest through the forecast period...
A series of midlevel shortwave troughs will progress inland over the
Pacific Northwest beginning on day 1 and continuing through the day
2 forecast period.  Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and
relatively moist, onshore flow will contribute to surface-based CAPE
of 100-300 J/kg, mainly from the crest of the Cascades westward to
the coast.  Here, low-topped convection with occasional lightning
flashes will be possible, with convection somewhat focused with an
initial shortwave trough early in the day, and with another trough
overnight.  The strongest cells could produce gusty winds and small
hail given the cold midlevel temperatures (close to minus 30 C at
500 mb), but severe storms are not anticipated.  Very isolated
lightning flashes may also occur across eastern OR/WA into ID as the
initial shortwave trough progresses inland, but marginal buoyancy
suggests this threat will be too low to warrant an outlook area.

East of the Rockies, relatively dry/stable low-level conditions are
expected in the wake of a cold front that will drift south of the FL
Peninsula.

..Thompson.. 11/17/2020

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