SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will become somewhat more amplified over the western states by the end of the forecast period. A series of mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate across the Pacific Northwest and dig southward along the CA coast, resulting in the development of a larger-scale trough. Further east, high pressure both aloft and at the surface will persist across the southeast and eastern U.S. This will result in dry and stable conditions for much of the CONUS east of the MS River. As the aforementioned trough becomes better defined in the west, a weak surface lee trough will develop over the Plains. This will allow for modest Gulf return flow spreading northward across TX into southern/central Plains vicinity, and surface dewpoints may climb into the low 50s as far north as OK/KS after 00z. A stout inversion around 850 mb will preclude surface-based instability, while warm temperatures aloft and poor midlevel lapse rates further preclude thunderstorm activity in this weak warm advection regime. ..Leitman.. 11/17/2020
There’s more click here.