SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday.

...Synopsis...

A quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will become somewhat more
amplified over the western states by the end of the forecast period.
A series of mid/upper shortwave impulses will migrate across the
Pacific Northwest and dig southward along the CA coast, resulting in
the development of a larger-scale trough. Further east, high
pressure both aloft and at the surface will persist across the
southeast and eastern U.S. This will result in dry and stable
conditions for much of the CONUS east of the MS River. 

As the aforementioned trough becomes better defined in the west, a
weak surface lee trough will develop over the Plains. This will
allow for modest Gulf return flow spreading northward across TX into
southern/central Plains vicinity, and surface dewpoints may climb
into the low 50s as far north as OK/KS after 00z. A stout inversion
around 850 mb will preclude surface-based instability, while warm
temperatures aloft and poor midlevel lapse rates further preclude
thunderstorm activity in this weak warm advection regime.

..Leitman.. 11/17/2020

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