SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive/semi-amplified large-scale flow regime will exist over
the CONUS through tonight, with upper troughing prevalent over both
the East and West Coasts, while an upper ridge shifts eastward over
the Great Plains and Upper Midwest.

A cold front will continue to settle southward across far southern
Florida today. The 12Z observed sounding from Miami reflects a
mid-level inversion around 625 mb. Although thermodynamic profiles
will not be overly conducive for lightning generation, a few
thunderstorms will be possible near coastal southeast Florida and
the Florida Keys.

Across the coastal Pacific Northwest, a shortwave trough and
associated frontal band will move inland today, with thermodynamic
profiles trending more favorable into the afternoon for some
thunderstorms in/near coastal areas. Weak surface-based buoyancy
(possibly a couple hundred J/kg SBCAPE) combined with strong
low/mid-tropospheric winds could support some convectively enhanced
gusty winds/small hail near the coast this afternoon and evening,
but organized severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to
remain low.

..Guyer/Leitman.. 11/17/2020

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