SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive/semi-amplified large-scale flow regime will exist over the CONUS through tonight, with upper troughing prevalent over both the East and West Coasts, while an upper ridge shifts eastward over the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. A cold front will continue to settle southward across far southern Florida today. The 12Z observed sounding from Miami reflects a mid-level inversion around 625 mb. Although thermodynamic profiles will not be overly conducive for lightning generation, a few thunderstorms will be possible near coastal southeast Florida and the Florida Keys. Across the coastal Pacific Northwest, a shortwave trough and associated frontal band will move inland today, with thermodynamic profiles trending more favorable into the afternoon for some thunderstorms in/near coastal areas. Weak surface-based buoyancy (possibly a couple hundred J/kg SBCAPE) combined with strong low/mid-tropospheric winds could support some convectively enhanced gusty winds/small hail near the coast this afternoon and evening, but organized severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 11/17/2020
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