SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.

...Western WA to coastal OR...
Increasingly onshore low-level trajectories may yield sufficient
moistening for the development of scant surface-based buoyancy,
mainly across portions of western WA later this afternoon. Isolated,
low-topped thunderstorms may form amid scattered showers with
sufficient effective bulk shear for a risk of small hail and locally
gusty winds. Another round of potential isolated thunderstorms may
develop towards the end of the period (09-12Z) along the OR coast as
a mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within the broader northeast
Pacific trough approaches the coast.

...Far South FL...
Isolated low-topped showers near the northern Bahamas should
translate southwest across the FL Straits today. The 12Z Miami
sounding continued to sample relatively warm/dry mid-levels above
600 mb which should serve to limit deep convective development amid
weak low-level convergence. Further drying of the boundary layer
later today will suppress all convection to south of the Keys by
this evening.

..Grams.. 11/17/2020

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