SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous U.S.
through tonight.

...20Z Update...

...Coastal Pacific Northwest...
Isolated lightning flashes are still expected later tonight into
early Wednesday morning along the coastal portions of WA, OR, and
far northern CA ahead of an approaching shortwave trough.

..Mosier.. 11/17/2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020/

...Western WA to coastal OR...
Increasingly onshore low-level trajectories may yield sufficient
moistening for the development of scant surface-based buoyancy,
mainly across portions of western WA later this afternoon. Isolated,
low-topped thunderstorms may form amid scattered showers with
sufficient effective bulk shear for a risk of small hail and locally
gusty winds. Another round of potential isolated thunderstorms may
develop towards the end of the period (09-12Z) along the OR coast as
a mid-level vorticity maximum embedded within the broader northeast
Pacific trough approaches the coast.

...Far South FL...
Isolated low-topped showers near the northern Bahamas should
translate southwest across the FL Straits today. The 12Z Miami
sounding continued to sample relatively warm/dry mid-levels above
600 mb which should serve to limit deep convective development amid
weak low-level convergence. Further drying of the boundary layer
later today will suppress all convection to south of the Keys by
this evening.

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