Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Quasi-zonal upper level pattern on Day 4/Fri will give way to a
somewhat more amplified and progressive pattern beginning Days
5-6/Sat-Sun. During this time, a series of mid/upper shortwave
troughs will migrate eastward from the western U.S. and into the
Plains. Strong surface high pressure will persist across much of the
U.S. east of the Rockies, resulting in dry, stable conditions.
However, a weak lee trough over the southern High Plains will allow
southerly low level flow to transport modest Gulf moisture northward
across the southern Plains ahead of a stalled front draped across KS
and into the lower MS/OH Valley vicinity. Surface dewpoints in the
50s to low 60s F could reside across parts of KS/OK/TX, but
cloudiness and heavy rain showers will limit instability. While
thunderstorm activity is possible for portions of the southern
Plains region during the weekend, severe potential appears limited.

Quite a bit of spread exists in forecast guidance beyond Day 6/Sun.
There is general agreement that another larger-scale trough will
eject eastward across the Rockies and into the Plains/Central U.S.
early next week. However, too much uncertainty remains at this time
scale given large spread in forecast guidance to ascertain severe
potential across parts of the southern U.S. around Days 7-8/Mon-Tue.

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