SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging and associated high pressure across the eastern CONUS, along with cooler/stable conditions across the central U.S, will limit deep-moist convective potential through the period. However, an upper trough with multiple embedded mid-level impulses will progress across the northwest CONUS today and into tonight, with deep-layer ascent overspreading northern California into the Pacific Northwest. A moist, marginally unstable marine layer along the CA/WA/OR coastline will promote modest thunderstorm potential through the day into early evening. With 30-40 kt flow expected just a few hundred meters above the ground, and with storm tops peaking in the -20 to -30C range (around 500 mb), gusty winds and perhaps some small hail may accompany the stronger cells. Towards late afternoon/early evening, one of the aforementioned embedded mid-level impulses will track further inland into western ID. Enhanced deep-layer ascent, and -10 to -30C 700-500 mb temperatures (contributing to over 100 J/kg MLCAPE) accompanying this impulse may induce a few lightning flashes. ..Squitieri.. 11/18/2020
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