SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 PM CST Tue Nov 17 2020

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.

Upper ridging and associated high pressure across the eastern CONUS,
along with cooler/stable conditions across the central U.S, will
limit deep-moist convective potential through the period. However,
an upper trough with multiple embedded mid-level impulses will
progress across the northwest CONUS today and into tonight, with
deep-layer ascent overspreading northern California into the Pacific
Northwest. A moist, marginally unstable marine layer along the
CA/WA/OR coastline will promote modest thunderstorm potential
through the day into early evening. With 30-40 kt flow expected just
a few hundred meters above the ground, and with storm tops peaking
in the -20 to -30C range (around 500 mb), gusty winds and perhaps
some small hail may accompany the stronger cells. Towards late
afternoon/early evening, one of the aforementioned embedded
mid-level impulses will track further inland into western ID.
Enhanced deep-layer ascent, and -10 to -30C 700-500 mb temperatures
(contributing to over 100 J/kg MLCAPE) accompanying this impulse may
induce a few lightning flashes.

..Squitieri.. 11/18/2020

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