SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday
night.

...Synopsis...

Quasi-zonal upper-level pattern will persist across much of the
CONUS east of the Rockies on Day 3/Friday. At the surface, strong
high pressure will generally lead to dry and stable conditions.
Across the western states, a mid/upper shortwave trough over the
Pacific Northwest early in the period will develop southeast across
the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This will result in height
falls across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains late in the
period, inducing a lee low over the central/southern High Plains. In
response, modest Gulf moisture will stream northward through the
southern Plains ahead of stalled front across the central Plains to
the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. 

This warm advection regime will likely result in developing showers
from the Four Corners into the central/southern Plains and parts of
the Midwest along the aforementioned boundary. However, thunderstorm
activity should be sparse due to weak instability and poor lapse
rates. The exception may be across parts of the higher terrain of SW
CO/NW NM where cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel
lapse rates, and deep layer flow will increase with the approach of
the trough. A few lightning flashes may occur in this area from late
Friday evening into the overnight hours.

..Leitman.. 11/18/2020

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