Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A more progressive and active weather pattern will emerge over the
CONUS during the Day 4-8 time period. A series of mid/upper troughs
will migrate from west to east across the country, bringing chances
for thunderstorm activity to parts of the southern/central Plains
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. The first trough will shift eastward
from the Plains to the Atlantic coast Day 4/Sat through Day 7/Tue.
The second trough will dig across the western states beginning late
Day 5/Sun and emerge over the Plains on Day 7/Tue. Strong surface
high pressure over the eastern U.S. initially will preclude much in
the way of strong Gulf return flow over the south-central and
southeast states. Given limited moisture and a pattern more typical
of anafrontal precipitation, severe thunderstorms are not expected,
though some isolated thunderstorm activity could be embedded in
periods of moderate to heavy rain from the central/southern Plains
to the Midwest through Day 5/Sun and into the Northeast on Day
6/Mon.

Another round of rain and thunderstorms is expected to develop over
the central/southern Plains as the second upper trough ejects
eastward across the Rockies around Day 7/Tue. Forecast guidance
varies in the timing and intensity of this system, so confidence is
low in the later parts of the forecast period, though some
thunderstorm potential is expected to spread eastward across much of
the eastern portions of the CONUS. Depending on low level moisture
and degree of destabilization that could occur, some low-end strong
to severe thunderstorm potential could unfold across the Southeast
by the middle of next week, but uncertainty is too great to include
probabilities at this time.

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