SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... A series of mid/upper shortwave troughs migrating through larger-scale cyclonic flow regime will shift eastward from the Rockies to the Upper Midwest and south-central U.S. on Saturday/Saturday night. Boundary-layer moisture will largely be limited by persistent surface high pressure over most of the CONUS. However, some modest surface dewpoints will reside over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley vicinity ahead of a southeastward-progressing cold front. Showers and at times moderate/heavy rainfall is possible in this weak upslope flow and warm advection regime across the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be limited to portions of the higher terrain of southern CO/northern NM. Here, cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE for isolate lightning flashes will coincide with strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough. Further east, poor lapse rates and very weak elevated instability will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2020
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