SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday through Saturday
night.

...Synopsis...

A series of mid/upper shortwave troughs migrating through
larger-scale cyclonic flow regime will shift eastward from the
Rockies to the Upper Midwest and south-central U.S. on
Saturday/Saturday night. Boundary-layer moisture will largely be
limited by persistent surface high pressure over most of the CONUS.
However, some modest surface dewpoints will reside over the southern
Plains into the lower MS Valley vicinity ahead of a
southeastward-progressing cold front. Showers and at times
moderate/heavy rainfall is possible in this weak upslope flow and
warm advection regime across the southern Rockies and adjacent
Plains, but thunderstorm activity is expected to be limited to
portions of the higher terrain of southern CO/northern NM. Here,
cooling aloft will result in steepening midlevel lapse rates and
sufficient MUCAPE for isolate lightning flashes will coincide with
strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough. Further east, poor
lapse rates and very weak elevated instability will preclude
thunderstorm activity.

..Leitman.. 11/19/2020

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