SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A strong westerly upper jet will move eastward from the western
CONUS across the southern Rockies/Plains through Saturday night.
Large-scale upper trough amplification is also expected across much
of central CONUS as a shortwave trough migrates from the northern
Rockies across the northern/central Plains through the period. At
the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the
central/eastern states, with modest low-level moisture return
occurring ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern
Plains/Ozarks. Large-scale ascent associated with the left exit
region of the upper jet and approaching shortwave trough may
contribute to isolated thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity
eastward into portions of the southern Plains. Rather limited MUCAPE
(generally 250 J/kg or less) should tend to limit overall
thunderstorm coverage, with most precipitation forecast to remain to
the north of the surface cold front.

Farther south, convection capable of producing isolated lightning
also appears possible across parts of the central/southern FL
Peninsula and the Keys. Easterly low-level flow should transport
greater low-level moisture inland through the day, with fairly cool
mid-level temperatures supporting weak to moderate instability by
peak afternoon heating. Weak deep-layer shear across this region is
expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorm potential.

..Gleason.. 11/20/2020

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