SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Thu Nov 19 2020 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong westerly upper jet will move eastward from the western CONUS across the southern Rockies/Plains through Saturday night. Large-scale upper trough amplification is also expected across much of central CONUS as a shortwave trough migrates from the northern Rockies across the northern/central Plains through the period. At the surface, high pressure will remain over much of the central/eastern states, with modest low-level moisture return occurring ahead of a cold front across parts of the southern Plains/Ozarks. Large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of the upper jet and approaching shortwave trough may contribute to isolated thunderstorms from the Four Corners vicinity eastward into portions of the southern Plains. Rather limited MUCAPE (generally 250 J/kg or less) should tend to limit overall thunderstorm coverage, with most precipitation forecast to remain to the north of the surface cold front. Farther south, convection capable of producing isolated lightning also appears possible across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys. Easterly low-level flow should transport greater low-level moisture inland through the day, with fairly cool mid-level temperatures supporting weak to moderate instability by peak afternoon heating. Weak deep-layer shear across this region is expected to preclude organized severe thunderstorm potential. ..Gleason.. 11/20/2020
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