SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the
contiguous United States on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough should continue moving eastward from the Plains
across the MS Valley/Midwest and eastern states on Sunday. At the
surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the
Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. A cold
front attendant to the surface low should sweep east-southeastward
across much of the southern Plains and eastern states. Modest
low-level moisture ahead of the front is expected to remain
generally confined to parts of the southern Plains into the
Mid-South. Various guidance suggests little instability should be
present across these regions owing to the limited low-level moisture
and poor mid-level lapse rates. Still, just enough elevated
instability may exist to support isolated thunderstorms, with
lightning potential decreasing with northeastward extent into the OH
Valley as instability becomes negligible. Organized severe
thunderstorms are not expected over any of these regions owing to
the meager forecast instability.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of
the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level
easterly flow continues, in the vicinity of the Four Corners as
upper troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period,
and possibly across the Outer Banks of NC very late Sunday night
into early Monday morning.

..Gleason.. 11/20/2020

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