SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States on Sunday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough should continue moving eastward from the Plains across the MS Valley/Midwest and eastern states on Sunday. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to develop northeastward from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast through the period. A cold front attendant to the surface low should sweep east-southeastward across much of the southern Plains and eastern states. Modest low-level moisture ahead of the front is expected to remain generally confined to parts of the southern Plains into the Mid-South. Various guidance suggests little instability should be present across these regions owing to the limited low-level moisture and poor mid-level lapse rates. Still, just enough elevated instability may exist to support isolated thunderstorms, with lightning potential decreasing with northeastward extent into the OH Valley as instability becomes negligible. Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected over any of these regions owing to the meager forecast instability. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday across parts of the central/southern FL Peninsula and the Keys as weak low-level easterly flow continues, in the vicinity of the Four Corners as upper troughing amplifies over the western CONUS late in the period, and possibly across the Outer Banks of NC very late Sunday night into early Monday morning. ..Gleason.. 11/20/2020
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