SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

...Synopsis...
A belt of progressive/low-amplitude cyclonically influenced
westerlies will prevail particularly over the northern two-thirds of
the CONUS. Thunderstorm potential is expected to remain quite
limited through tonight, due to a general lack of low-level
moisture/buoyancy across the CONUS.

...Ozark Plateau...
Southerly return flow will result in gradual moistening into the
Ozark Plateau through tonight as a front moves south-southeastward
into the region. Focused ascent along/north of the surface boundary
will contribute to an increase in showers late tonight/early
Saturday particularly across southern Missouri/southeast Kansas. A
few lightning flashes cannot be ruled out. However, current
expectations are for the overall thunderstorm potential/coverage to
remain limited (sub-10 percent) based on marginal thermodynamic
profiles, but this will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks.

...South Florida...
Showers will be possible across south Florida through much of the
period, but warm mid-level temperatures and a lack of large-scale
ascent should limit the potential for deep convection capable of
producing lightning.

...Four Corners...
Gradually increasing moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures may
support very weak buoyancy later tonight in the Four Corners region,
but the potential for lightning with any shower activity remains too
limited for a thunderstorm area at this time.

..Guyer.. 11/20/2020

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