SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Fri Nov 20 2020

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for thunderstorms appears negligible through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A largely quiescent pattern will continue over the CONUS through
this period, with zonal flow over the northern tier of states and
weak flow aloft over the Gulf coast/Southeast.  A few convective
showers will be possible across south FL in an easterly flow regime
as a post-frontal air mass modifies over time, though a pronounced
temperature inversion in the 850-700 mb layer should limit any
thunderstorm potential.  Farther west, low-level moisture is
returning northward into east TX, but substantial convective
inhibition and a lack of forcing for ascent will preclude
thunderstorms.  

Gradual moistening in a frontal zone oriented roughly along the I-44
corridor from MO into OK could lead to the development of weak
buoyancy rooted in the 850-700 mb layer from 06-12z.  Only weak
ascent and some convective inhibition are expected along the front
until near or after the end of this forecast period, which suggests
that any elevated convective showers over southwest MO should remain
too shallow/weak for lightning production until the day 2 period.

..Thompson.. 11/20/2020

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